#Iran #StraitOfHormuz
The USS Milius turned around
Scott Ritter on destroyer coming about, reversing course
RantWoman interpretation:
Watch the whole video. RantWoman is not going just to recap it. It is full of geographic and strategic realities for Iran and the kinds of topics intelligence analysts discuss in minute detail. De-escalation is wise and possible. SO FAR, sane voices have prevailed. A request went up the chain of command and the tactically correct order came back. Maybe it means the Secretary of #WarCrimes has not succeeded in purging all the competent voices in the Pentagon. A couple other protective maybes come to mind; RantWoman is not going to articulate them for fear of ruining them.
Quotes
3 Options
Military escalation
Diplomatic climb down
Send in an aircraft carrier
Sun Tzu
War is not won by the side with the most missiles. War is one by the side that causes the other side to lose its will to fight.
The ultimate audience: China
And a couple other videos
multiple scenarios. messy legal questions for different options
Blockade meant to increase leverage on Iran
A test of wills and time.
The US has historically underestimated Iranian resilience.
Has Iran discovered the Strait of Hormuz as a form of deterrence?
RIGHT TO ENRICH important to Iran
Israel wants regime change. US focus more on nuclear program.
Tragic that nothing directed at Iranian people now stuck with a more hard line regime, increased economic strain. (Isarel, US overconfident that bombing will facilitate regime change)
NEGOTIATIONS
More US forces in transit to region
Who benefits more from lull?
Situation "unsustainable"
Refueling problem for US and longer term shortage of Tomahawk cruise missiles
For Iran, air defense, possibly resupplied by China and / or Russia.
Hard to expect both a lasting cease fire and closed strait of Hormuz
China is world's largest buy of Iranian oil so why veto UN resolution on opening the Strait.
STRATEGY
Original resolution text "all necessary means," Escalation with legal backing.
China said No 3 times as language got adjusted over and over
China calculates decades ahead.
(RantWoman reminds readers that President #StableGenius and kin have MANY investments in China. He benefits either way. Also note Chinese heavy investment in alternative energy resources while President #StableGenius has been cancelling such projects left, right, and sideways)
Every week that the strait remains closed increases pressure to trade about oil in currencies other than the dollar.
China has multiple forms of buffers for energy resilience
Chinese Ambassador comments that the resolution does not address root cause of problems. Clear demonstration that international law should not be selectively applied.
China now frames itself as defender of national sovreignty
Military legal economic narrative
Leverage, timing, narrative
Counter argument: Who runs out of time first?
US
Iran only needs to avoid losing fast.
China is not sending armies... just the ability to say "no."
And one of several more videos by Professor Jiang.
Saudi Arabie begs the US not to blockade Strait
DoD disinformation.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment