RantWoman wants desperately to believe that no one is beyond the mercy of God.
President #StableGenius keeps testing that hope, beefing with the Pope, among other apparently ludicrous babblings.
RantWoman would be thrilled, THRILLED if #GrandpaSleepyhead were simply to get tired of the endless hassles, resign and settle into genteel retirement full of golf and napping. RantWoman would consider that such an act of mercy, Divine or otherwise that RantWoman might be able to bypass the temptation on everyone's lips to try to charge him again and again for many crimes and misdemeanors. But if the dude is not competent to be President, he also is not competent to stand trial.
RantWoman thinks she has said this before, but is stuck on the idea. Set him up with a constant AI feed of over-the-top adulation. Don't let him travel anywhere except between his own properties. As long as his hands are off the nuclear codes and the world does not have to fret about his decrepitating body and deteriorating mental capacity, he can have all the sycophants he wants assuring him he is the greatest ever, without too many specifics about greatest at what.
Instead, RantWoman's media streams keep bringing more evidence that the President is just bonkers. Here a few examples.
Malawi has no official ship registry is the ship in question is legally stateless. The ship in question was spoofing location for days.
Able to load Iranian product at an Omani Port
Part of the global shadow fleet
China and Iran have been working on the technologies and plans of evasion for decades.
Gap between what CentCom says and what the US navy can enforce
The ship did turn back but the gap is plain to see.
RantWoman's interpretation: Ha. Ha. US is being told the strait is blockaded but there are big legal holes. Both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are Iranian territorial waters. US ships going there would be an act of war. Multiple paths to escalation, but de-escalation? Who blinks first? Don't bet on Iran / China
And from Iran:
"No port in the Gulf is safe unless all ports are safe"
Iran is not talking to the US. It's talking to every gulf state with some kind of oil activity on the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia pressing the US to end the blockade and return to negotiations.
You do not need big boats to blow up an aircraft carrier.
Iran is also threatening the Red Sea. Houthis have not stood by so far.
US is managing 5 things at once: US silence is strategic but has risks. Iran trying to split the US from regional partners.
Sales to China greater than before war.
China used shadow tankers and second tier banks not in the SWIFT network. Iran is getting paid in yuan, not dollars. So Iran has economic oxygen to sustain itself.
China preparing to send shoulder-launched weapons to Iran.
The confidence ladder
Iran threatened every port because confident of Chinese moves.
US treating China and Russia as spectators.
RantWoman has not checked the sources cited as part of this interpretation.
And for different scenarios, different interpretations
One of RantWoman's favorite YouTube voices, esteemed for packing a lot of punch into few words and for taking on lots of questions politely and with solid information.
Scott Ritter on destroyer coming about, reversing course
RantWoman interpretation:
Watch the whole video. RantWoman is not going just to recap it. It is full of geographic and strategic realities for Iran and the kinds of topics intelligence analysts discuss in minute detail. De-escalation is wise and possible. SO FAR, sane voices have prevailed. A request went up the chain of command and the tactically correct order came back. Maybe it means the Secretary of #WarCrimes has not succeeded in purging all the competent voices in the Pentagon. A couple other protective maybes come to mind; RantWoman is not going to articulate them for fear of ruining them.
Quotes
3 Options
Military escalation
Diplomatic climb down
Send in an aircraft carrier
Sun Tzu
War is not won by the side with the most missiles. War is one by the side that causes the other side to lose its will to fight.
multiple scenarios. messy legal questions for different options
Blockade meant to increase leverage on Iran
A test of wills and time.
The US has historically underestimated Iranian resilience.
Has Iran discovered the Strait of Hormuz as a form of deterrence?
RIGHT TO ENRICH important to Iran
Israel wants regime change. US focus more on nuclear program.
Tragic that nothing directed at Iranian people now stuck with a more hard line regime, increased economic strain. (Isarel, US overconfident that bombing will facilitate regime change)
China is world's largest buy of Iranian oil so why veto UN resolution on opening the Strait.
STRATEGY
Original resolution text "all necessary means," Escalation with legal backing.
China said No 3 times as language got adjusted over and over
China calculates decades ahead.
(RantWoman reminds readers that President #StableGenius and kin have MANY investments in China. He benefits either way. Also note Chinese heavy investment in alternative energy resources while President #StableGenius has been cancelling such projects left, right, and sideways)
Every week that the strait remains closed increases pressure to trade about oil in currencies other than the dollar.
China has multiple forms of buffers for energy resilience
Chinese Ambassador comments that the resolution does not address root cause of problems. Clear demonstration that international law should not be selectively applied.
China now frames itself as defender of national sovreignty
Military legal economic narrative
Leverage, timing, narrative
Counter argument: Who runs out of time first?
US
Iran only needs to avoid losing fast.
China is not sending armies... just the ability to say "no."
And one of several more videos by Professor Jiang.
YouTube has multiple reports from Al Jazeera, the BBC and other sources about missile strikes two weeks ago about the Israeli nuclear weapons complex at Dimona. RantWoman does not remember this coming up in the media streams RantWoman consumes most regularly. RantWoman thinks it may be too early to expect other reporting about the incident discussed in the video below.
This video contains reference to automatically generated audio, a point which always makes RantWoman treat the content with caution. That said, RantWoman can also easily see the point about governments not necessarily wanting to advertise strikes like the ones outlined here. Finally, RantWoman observes that former inspector Ritter has acquired the kind of black mark which sometimes comes to someone known for telling too much of the truth.
The basic points:
--After 3 rounds of missile strikes, containment around the Dimona reactor is almost certainly damaged.
--There is a serious question about whether missile strikes could result in wide dispersion of radionuclides even if there is no reactor meltdown.
--One indicator of damage would be increased presence of radionuclides in the atmosphere around the area. Apparently, Israel is doing nothing to warn there population but Jordan is distributing potassium iodide prophylactically to border towns.
But RantWoman, do readers really care about one more problematic nuclear site and a bunch of missile verbiage?
Here's why RantWoman decided to post this.
The world demands nuclear inspection in Iran, but Israel REFUSES to allow IAEA inspections, does not sign the Nonproliferation Treaty. WHY should Israel be the only country in the Middle east permitted to have nuclear weapons? What if the world demanded that Israel also give up nuclear weapons?
What if the world demanded of Israel the same level of scrutiny and limits on nuclear program that are being demanded of Iran?
As an aside for all the people saying some version of "we have been trying to curtail Iran's nuclear program for decades. Now is the time so future generations don't have to deal with it:" Note: 20% of Iran's population is under 14 and overall Iran's population skews younger than the US. Shouldn't the world be setting an example of dealing positively with nuclear issues instead of colidifying resentments for another generation to seethe with???
And furthermore, if there is some general principle about governments that are too crazy not being allowed to have nuclear weapons, shouldn't the US look in the mirror and worry about some self-important foreign power showing up "for our own good?"
Oh no, what will happen to the market for US weapons exports?
One wants both to corroborate this content with other sources and to observe tartly that sanctions which starve civilian populations also create conditions where military technologies evolve in very efficient low resource input directions. Smoke that everyone who says the US needs to spend more money on defense.
RantWoman is, like every othr sane person on the planet, relieved that the President has decided, at least for now, not to attempt to destroy an entire civilization.
First, words from Lawrence O'Donell. Then various comentators.
Check out the Zeteo vid in particular.
1. If having an insane government means a country should not have nuclear weapons, time for the world to subtract nuclear weapons from the US.
2. There is NO WAY the #DonSnoreleone and Bibi can bomb Iran into regime change. If anything, everyone in Iran is going to do the same thing that people in the US did after 9/11.
3. Way past time for #GrandpaSleepyhead to RESIGN and retire to a genteel life of golf and napping. Declare Mar a Lago a permanent home for the criminally insane. Allow him only to travel between his golf courses and always under guard.
4. Fix him up with a permanent AI loop of cheering crowds and ever-increasing click counts on a social media equivalent of a closed-circuit TV with very limited audience.
5. No pardons, but if he is incompetent to be President, he is also incompetent to stand trial. Concentrate on going after all his enablers.
6. And if we really want to stand up against this nonsense, a windfall profit tax on every company making extra big bank from all the price shocks.
RantWoman takes a realist view of videos such as this one. It is useful to know how other people think even if one disagrees with multiple implied premises.
RantWoman is presenting coverage from sources she considers well-informed. Presenting information is not necessarily endorsement of specific policy recommendations.
Random takeaways:
President #StableGenius is bonkers. For example US Merchant Marine academy cadets stuck on ships in the Persian Gulf.
One reference to something US troops MIGHT be doing
Ship passage appears to be in national territorial waters, Iran to the N and someone else to the S.
RantWoman cynical comment: the oil market is global. If global prices go up, US oil companies are going to make out like bandits at least for awhile.
Sal says it could take MONTHS to straighten out the impact on world trade of having the Strait of Hormuz closed as long as it has been.
If a country has a little excursion that goes all "kinetic," but leaves a bunch of very expensive military hardware out in sight of satellites and much cheaper drones....
Can you spot the arguments that might be made for more, more, more defense spending?
President #StableGenius is apparently misrepresenting the degree to which the Strait of Hormuz is open, as in a daily single digit trickle of ships apparently sailing in Iranian territorial waters and paying a toll to Iran.
Interesting video of an actual shipping transiting the Strait.
Big ships are pretty resilient to missile and drone attacks
20,000 stuck on vessels with problems about supplies because the ships are not moving. See long description from X on the other side of the video
<
Absolutely right to highlight the human tragedy behind the headlines. While geopolitics and shipping lanes dominate discussions, we must not forget the 20,000–40,000 seafarers trapped on stranded vessels in the Persian Gulf amid the ongoing conflict. Many face severe shortages of… https://t.co/feSjhTZTjn
RantWoman lifts up many Friends who have found freedom among Friends to be fully who they are. RantWoman especially wants to lift up two people in her orbit.
Here, slightly edited are comments RantWoman posted elewhere.
Remember last year? Some of RantWoman's social media was filled with complaints that transgender people were trying to steal Easter because Transgender Day of Visibility fell on or near Easter. Here are two people especially to lift up, whether it's Easter or not.
Julia P. memorable for favoring Value village formal wear for daytime events. Julia and her friend Maria are both deaf-blind and have many stories about interpreter challenges. They now live somewhere in CA.
Mateo Hayes Hansen of Bellingham who passed away recently. RantWoman has known Mateo since before he transitioned so RantWoman has to keep checking herself to avoid deadnaming him. Mateo was a special ed teacher. He lost vision in mid-life and for a time was not in contact with Friends in places where he had previously worshipped. RantWoman never had the impression that he was interested in either blindness consumer group in spite of his tireless encouragement to RantWoman to keep speaking up about ableism and patience with other Friends struggling with vision loss.
For RantWoman it is remarkable that the article mentions nothing about Mateo's blindness even though he and his guide dog Batik and RantWoman did a presentation one time for the children's class at our Quaker meeting. Children sometimes are much more interested in guide dogs than in the humans who come with them. Enough said?
Mateo served on the board of Western Friend, wrote at least one book of historical fiction about Quaker history and is remembered for many insights.
RantWoman will link further information when a memorial minute is published.
RantWoman is NOT a deep scholar of the US Supreme Court or of first amendment freedom of speech issues. RantWoman is not letting that deter from a couple comments about the Supreme Court announcing its ruling overturning the part of the CO law that bans conversion therapy as practiced against people struggling with their sexuality and / or gender identity.
Will RantWoman follow Justice Sotomayor's persistent recommendation to READ THE OPINIONS? Maybe.
Does RantWoman concur with what has been reported about Justice Jackson's view? YES, the kind of speech that the CO law is trying to bar absolutely is harmful.
But as long as the court is going to hang its opnion on freedom of speech issues, speaking out loudly and clearly and embracing people for who they are becomes even more essential than before.
Who Knew? Marilyn Manson has covered this Johny cash song God's Gonna Cut You Down several times.
Tell me it's weird to make this the earworm of the week for holy week. Guess what! COPE!
This song is dedicated to the Secretary of #WarCrimes, to his pastor who is being even more Rah-rah violence, and to Pope Leo attempted to spank the warmongers.
RantWoman is willing to, but NOT linger long, in the place where the good pastor's words refer to some kind of spiritual transformation. On account of allof MAGA who are metaphor-challenged though, Yuck. Way to win converts bro.
And the Center on Conscience and War is right there in social media saying, basically, "if this galvanizes you, we can help you file a conscientious objector claim.
RantWoman knows almost nothing about current conscientious objection realities but thanks her social media streams for bringing this connection in this time of....
Sal Mercogliano is BY FAR the most reliable and concise source of info about Global shipping RantWoman has found. YouTube first delivered a one of Sal's video when there was a boat headed up the West Coast drawing protests because it supposedly was carrying weapons to Israel for the Gaza war. RantWoman and wondered about the shipping route and formed the opinion, thanks to Sal, that claims about arms shipments should be looked at more carefully. RantWoman has not chased down further info about that particular vessel.
There is PLENTY of other news. This video in a nutshell
--Sal dissects the latest claims from President #StableGenius about the number of ships actually making progress around the Strait of Hormuz. The answer, not as many as the President claims and, RantWoman imagines, the lies are intended to calm the oil markets at least temporarily.
--In this video Sal doesn't mention the humanitarian crisis he has documented elsewhere of all the vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf and running out of supplies. Measures to address the needs of the stranded crews, to RantWoman seem like an obvious easy first step to create a greater sense of safe navigation than currently exists. Addressing this humanitarian matter could POSSIBLY also ease a little bit a sense of global outrage as poorer countries try to absorb all the disruptions in world energy markets. Pricing will probably still be a mess but at least someone is looking out for all the crews on all these internationally flagged and crewed vessels.
--Sal says "send in the US military." It's not clear to RantWoman, send in who to do what? Sal is not required to be a politician. That said, SOME mention of getting Congressional buy-in seems HIGHLY on point.
--Longer term, RantWoman hesitates about appearing rhetorically aligned with the #AmericaFirst crowd. Nevertheless, 1. Why should it be the US alone trying to enforce anything anywhere? 2. The US has PLENTY we could be doing with our tax dollars if we weren't draining the Treasury to the tund of #2Billion / day.
-SO much uncertainty, which is triply irritating since President #StableGenius is busy cancelling renewable energy projects every way he can, doing everything he can to cancel anything that would make the US less dependent on oil and gas.
--Short comment about loosening sanctions, the UK monitoring the Russian shadow fleet, and Ukraine continuing to attack Russian oil trade infrastructure.
RantWoman will go off separately about the Secretary of #WarCrimes and a certain recent prayer session.
RantWoman is picking some thematic clumps of videos. with some commentary
The Department of DEFENSE wants $200 billion dollars for its war of choice. Meanwhile aircraft carriers are sitting ducks and the USS Gerald R Ford is already so overstressed by a long deployment that there are memes of it sinking even though the flames in question are a laundry fire. The F-35 heat signature has been identified so more planes can be hit. And million-dollar interceptors can be disable with $20,000 drones.
If it were up to RantWoman, RantWoman would want $10 for diplomacy and social programs for every $1 of defense spending. RantWoman is also not commenting about general threads about "if only we had this or that military capability..." when Iran is doing TONS of damage with $20,000 drones. There is also the whole question of what is the US doing in the first place and are bombs the best way to do it?
So give the Pentagon MORE money? How about hard nope. Spend $10 dollars on depomacy for every dollar fed to ....
Rhetorical note: Secretary of DEFENSE Pete Hegseth has proclaimed himself the Secretary of WAR without any involvement by Congress, the body that would be tasked with renaming a Cabinet level agency. RantWoman will either be using the hashtag #SecDef or, based on interpretation of multiple media statements, the Secretary of War CRIMES. RantWoman would desperately prefer that the label not be needed, but that is only one reality of a situation that is horrific on so many levels.
Various pieces specifically about weapons and logistics issues
"Here in S Korea we have to figure out how to deal with the clown show."
President #StableGenius asks SOUTH Korea to help set up a meeting with N Korean dictator and North Korea fires missiles.
Why ask for military assistance by social media?
Korea evacuates citizens from 4 countries.
Trump wants mine sweeping help from Japan despite Constitutional prohibitions against action outside national waters, can only help after the war is over.
David Sachs says "good time for the US to declare victory and get out."
China doesn't know what (the President) wants out of meeting with Xi. US executives not sure whether invited.
KC -135's: SIX crashed or damaged. Claim that the KC-135 that went down collided with a second KC-`25. Was this because of jamming or signal disruption?
Attack on Kharg Island frequently bombed during Iran/Iraq war.
Nance spouting "lived experience."
Militarized Island. Unclear impact on oil facilities.
Chatting about military hardware and Improved Hawk missiles and sales with money used to fund the Contras.
90 impact points NOT 90 targets.
Most of Kharg Island goes to China. If oil targets get hit, DHinese demand will drive gas prices even higher.
People don't hang around on bases. They go to Mom's house."
US escort under GHW Bush but US flag increases insurance, makes a target. So pay small fee to small counties to use their flag.
Previous escort experience: madness
In short demonstration attack and shoot selves in foot if plan to occupy.
President #StableGenius called this "The greatest bombardment in the history of the Middle east."
Geography of oil fields and multiple countries' oil facilities.
LOTS of small boat trade and action.
"The Iranians are no longer fighting a military war. They are fighting an economic war." and lots of back and forth "If you hit this, we will hit that." Goal is to put pressure on US and US allies. Goal: get the US out.
Burden of pressure on the world to STOP TRUMP.
Economic warfare (increased gas prices) is working.
Iran to Gulf neighbors: these are US targets. You host them.
Using remote control wooden boats.
Marine Expeditionary units. Either in Cuba or near Japan. If planning had happened, MAYBE prepared.
Have to go from Philipines back to Japan to get desert camo. Will take almost 2 days to get to Iran, If actually get there, Iran has plenty of ways to defend. Or things get very hot very fast.
Nance: are they serious? Would they have prepared differently? OR is this all propaganda???
If actually get "boots on the ground" very dangerous.
Jacob: "During war, misreading your opponent can have disastrous consequences and I see no evidence that (the President) understands that."
Interests: Digital Inclusion, Languages and language access, walkability, accessibility, disaster preparedness.
When in doubt, laugh about something!
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