UAE wants US weapons and bases out, as well as financial support or else if they run out of dollars they will trade oil in yuan.
(RantWoman had predicted durimg Trump 1.0 that oil might not be traded in dollars by the end of that administration. RantWoman's timeline was just off.)
RantWoman wants desperately to believe that no one is beyond the mercy of God.
President #StableGenius keeps testing that hope, beefing with the Pope, among other apparently ludicrous babblings.
RantWoman would be thrilled, THRILLED if #GrandpaSleepyhead were simply to get tired of the endless hassles, resign and settle into genteel retirement full of golf and napping. RantWoman would consider that such an act of mercy, Divine or otherwise that RantWoman might be able to bypass the temptation on everyone's lips to try to charge him again and again for many crimes and misdemeanors. But if the dude is not competent to be President, he also is not competent to stand trial.
RantWoman thinks she has said this before, but is stuck on the idea. Set him up with a constant AI feed of over-the-top adulation. Don't let him travel anywhere except between his own properties. As long as his hands are off the nuclear codes and the world does not have to fret about his decrepitating body and deteriorating mental capacity, he can have all the sycophants he wants assuring him he is the greatest ever, without too many specifics about greatest at what.
Instead, RantWoman's media streams keep bringing more evidence that the President is just bonkers. Here a few examples.
Malawi has no official ship registry is the ship in question is legally stateless. The ship in question was spoofing location for days.
Able to load Iranian product at an Omani Port
Part of the global shadow fleet
China and Iran have been working on the technologies and plans of evasion for decades.
Gap between what CentCom says and what the US navy can enforce
The ship did turn back but the gap is plain to see.
RantWoman's interpretation: Ha. Ha. US is being told the strait is blockaded but there are big legal holes. Both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are Iranian territorial waters. US ships going there would be an act of war. Multiple paths to escalation, but de-escalation? Who blinks first? Don't bet on Iran / China
And from Iran:
"No port in the Gulf is safe unless all ports are safe"
Iran is not talking to the US. It's talking to every gulf state with some kind of oil activity on the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia pressing the US to end the blockade and return to negotiations.
You do not need big boats to blow up an aircraft carrier.
Iran is also threatening the Red Sea. Houthis have not stood by so far.
US is managing 5 things at once: US silence is strategic but has risks. Iran trying to split the US from regional partners.
Sales to China greater than before war.
China used shadow tankers and second tier banks not in the SWIFT network. Iran is getting paid in yuan, not dollars. So Iran has economic oxygen to sustain itself.
China preparing to send shoulder-launched weapons to Iran.
The confidence ladder
Iran threatened every port because confident of Chinese moves.
US treating China and Russia as spectators.
RantWoman has not checked the sources cited as part of this interpretation.
And for different scenarios, different interpretations
One of RantWoman's favorite YouTube voices, esteemed for packing a lot of punch into few words and for taking on lots of questions politely and with solid information.
Scott Ritter on destroyer coming about, reversing course
RantWoman interpretation:
Watch the whole video. RantWoman is not going just to recap it. It is full of geographic and strategic realities for Iran and the kinds of topics intelligence analysts discuss in minute detail. De-escalation is wise and possible. SO FAR, sane voices have prevailed. A request went up the chain of command and the tactically correct order came back. Maybe it means the Secretary of #WarCrimes has not succeeded in purging all the competent voices in the Pentagon. A couple other protective maybes come to mind; RantWoman is not going to articulate them for fear of ruining them.
Quotes
3 Options
Military escalation
Diplomatic climb down
Send in an aircraft carrier
Sun Tzu
War is not won by the side with the most missiles. War is one by the side that causes the other side to lose its will to fight.
multiple scenarios. messy legal questions for different options
Blockade meant to increase leverage on Iran
A test of wills and time.
The US has historically underestimated Iranian resilience.
Has Iran discovered the Strait of Hormuz as a form of deterrence?
RIGHT TO ENRICH important to Iran
Israel wants regime change. US focus more on nuclear program.
Tragic that nothing directed at Iranian people now stuck with a more hard line regime, increased economic strain. (Isarel, US overconfident that bombing will facilitate regime change)
China is world's largest buy of Iranian oil so why veto UN resolution on opening the Strait.
STRATEGY
Original resolution text "all necessary means," Escalation with legal backing.
China said No 3 times as language got adjusted over and over
China calculates decades ahead.
(RantWoman reminds readers that President #StableGenius and kin have MANY investments in China. He benefits either way. Also note Chinese heavy investment in alternative energy resources while President #StableGenius has been cancelling such projects left, right, and sideways)
Every week that the strait remains closed increases pressure to trade about oil in currencies other than the dollar.
China has multiple forms of buffers for energy resilience
Chinese Ambassador comments that the resolution does not address root cause of problems. Clear demonstration that international law should not be selectively applied.
China now frames itself as defender of national sovreignty
Military legal economic narrative
Leverage, timing, narrative
Counter argument: Who runs out of time first?
US
Iran only needs to avoid losing fast.
China is not sending armies... just the ability to say "no."
And one of several more videos by Professor Jiang.
Interests: Digital Inclusion, Languages and language access, walkability, accessibility, disaster preparedness.
When in doubt, laugh about something!
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